China’s Malacca Dilemma: A Strategic Vulnerability | UPSC International Relations
The Malacca Dilemma is China’s dependence on the Strait of Malacca for the majority of its oil imports. The strait is a narrow waterway that connects the Indian Ocean to the North China sea, and it is controlled by several southeast Asian countries. In the year 2016, 80% of China’s oil supplies passed through Malacca.
If India gains control it, then China will lose access to global trade and the ships have to take a longer route. It is estimated, China’s shipping cost will increase a lot if Malacca is closed even for a week. China is heavily dependent on hydrocarbon imports. On the other hand, India is arguing that China is trying to surround itself with a network of dual-use port facilities in the Indian ocean.
But from an economic and strategic perspective, the strait of Malacca is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. It is the shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean and it links major Asian economies like India, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea.
If the strait gets blocked or closed then there will be a major problem for China’s energy supplies. To counter this risk, China has started investing in alternative routes for its oil imports like building pipelines and developing ports like Pakistan, Myanmar, and Bangladesh. China has also increased its navy presence in the Indian Ocean to protect its shipping lines.
On the other hand, India is also dependent on the strait of Malacca for a significant portion of its oil imports. India has been exploring various strategies to reduce its dependence on the strait of Malacca as India has been pursuing the development of alternative routes by investing in the development of Chabhar port in Iran which provides an alternative point to the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. India is also exploring energy trade with other countries such as Russia, the US, and the Middle East to strengthen energy security. India is taking several steps to address its dependence on the Strait of Malacca, by developing alternative routes, increasing its navy presence, and strengthening energy trade.
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